Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 30.064496 32.214728 34.546028 37.280684 40.426104 43.962753 48.286996
2025-11-09 26.328035 29.088027 32.256279 36.223519 41.151503 47.208525 55.454620
2025-11-16 23.983696 26.959884 30.490656 35.089257 41.086886 48.914192 60.435903
2025-11-23 22.975561 26.244647 30.245203 35.659202 43.077677 53.397088 69.998639
2025-11-30 21.909100 25.327619 29.610260 35.581000 44.093674 56.588836 78.365576
2025-12-07 20.891947 24.377825 28.826137 35.177995 44.536449 58.923009 85.898589
2025-12-14 19.574684 22.953571 27.307899 33.606458 43.055968 57.968350 87.170477
2025-12-21 19.007041 22.468141 27.001049 33.700867 44.066650 61.192087 97.506702
2025-12-28 18.603699 22.169628 26.916706 34.090479 45.555721 65.471355 111.824146
2026-01-04 17.859695 21.373733 26.092397 33.308758 45.049026 66.027980 117.653431
2026-01-11 17.635036 21.267880 26.223530 33.970866 47.003924 71.609561 139.581698
2026-01-18 17.425775 21.168436 26.350838 34.626685 49.018423 77.779711 168.409368
2026-01-25 16.884612 20.662271 25.973641 34.644753 50.266834 83.534118 207.148636
2026-02-01 16.103331 19.792257 25.026374 33.686328 49.633624 85.011197 233.018163
2026-02-08 15.390936 18.981284 24.112159 32.691769 48.772117 85.674470 257.555883
2026-02-15 15.113534 18.776642 24.093419 33.193350 50.937527 95.024380 370.576537
2026-02-22 14.724625 18.388574 23.765570 33.124573 51.917142 101.601375 516.583639
2026-03-01 14.301706 17.930531 23.300786 32.769561 52.224732 106.343096 716.655620
2026-03-08 13.677748 17.153076 22.299272 31.381465 50.073688 102.267157 706.113318
2026-03-15 13.416176 16.903028 22.117868 31.465023 51.252420 110.233480 1294.426800
2026-03-22 13.226729 16.751398 22.082494 31.809626 53.094653 121.904090 6129.195547
2026-03-29 12.837146 16.284426 21.516877 31.117838 52.351357 122.885095 34630.911765
2026-04-05 12.724812 16.232166 21.620859 31.703870 54.860174 139.971330 NaN